Two Hits Gets Hochevar Into Brewers

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Ready to take the hill for the visiting Diamondbacks this afternoon is Ian Kennedy who has emerged as one of the surprise hurlers in the NL for the first half of the season. Kennedy, who is in his second season with Arizona and his fifth in the majors overall, is sporting an impressive 8-2 record in 2011 after putting up a 9-10 mark a year ago.

 

As for the A's, they are giving the ball to lefty Gio Gonzalez this time around. Gonzalez, who like Kennedy is facing the opposition today for the first time in his career, picked up his seventh win of the season on Tuesday as he held the Florida Marlins to just a single hit and three walks, while striking out nine through eight innings of a 1-0 decision.

 

(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Locked in a tie for first place in the National League Central with the St. Louis Cardinals, the Milwaukee Brewers try to separate themselves by closing out their three-game interleague set against the Minnesota Twins on a positive note this afternoon at Target Field. The Brewers are actually lucky to be in this position at the moment, given that they squeezed by Minnesota in an 8-7 final yesterday in order to halt a four-game slide. It also doesn't help that a team with an amazing 29-11 record at home thus far has posted a mere 16-28 mark on the road.

 

Nyjer Morgan finished up 3-for-5 with a home run, double, triple and four RBI, and scored the winning run for the Brewers in a four-run ninth inning on Saturday to give the visitors the hard-fought win. Pinch-hitter George Kottaras plated the game-winning run, while Jonathan Lucroy went 2-for-4 with a pair of RBI for Milwaukee in the triumph as well.

 

Takashi Saito worked a scoreless eighth inning to earn the victory and John Axford pitched a perfect ninth to collect his 21st save of the campaign. Milwaukee starter Chris Narveson was shelled by Minnesota hitters who piled up 14 hits and seven runs against him in just 4 2/3 innings of work.

 

Carl Pavano kept the Twins on top as he permitted just four runs on eight hits, striking out four, through 7 2/3 innings. Unfortunately the bullpen, specifically Matt Capps, was unable to bring home the win for their starter. Capps recorded only two outs but surrendered four runs on five hits as he absorbed his fourth loss of 2011.

 

A loser in two of his last three outings, Zack Greinke hopes to get better results this time out as he closes the series with Minnesota this afternoon.

 

As for the Twins, they'll be leaning on Nick Blackburn to get them through today at Target Field. The right-hander, just 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA in four career games versus Milwaukee, has dropped two straight outings, the most recent of which was a 15-0 thrashing by LA on Monday.

 

Minnesota, which is now 11 games below .500 and nine games off the pace in the American League Central, is trailing in the season series with the Brewers by a count of 4-1 and is now just 7-10 in interleague play this year. Milwaukee is showing a 6-8 mark versus the AL this season.

 

(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With hopes of remaining relevant in the second half of the season slowly slipping away, the Kansas City Royals try to bring an end to a five-game slide this afternoon at Coors Field as they close out a three-game interleague set against the Colorado Rockies. KC, which was 10 games under .500 on this date a year ago, is even worse off this time around as it deals with the fact that it is the American League's worst team yet again with just 33 victories in 83 opportunities. The biggest problem for the Royals is they simply can't get it done on the road in 2011 with just 10 wins in 36 chances following their 9-6 loss last night.

 

Royals starter Kyle Davies was touched for seven runs on eight hits, although only four of the runs were earned. Nevertheless, Davies still absorbed his seventh loss in eight decisions as he made it through just three innings.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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